Happy Mortal

This life, well-lived.

Extended Market Forecast

The last few weeks have made me wish that I had more skills relating to nature than technology, but alas, I know blogging better than hunter-gathering. So, instead of perpetuating the doom and gloom that have invaded my mind, I’ve decided to offer a best cast scenario.

The bail out package will successfully un-freeze the credit markets. Wall Street will begin to stabilize once the markets thaw, followed by increased faith in our banks, the Fed, and the market in general. Legislation as well as good-old-fashioned fear will encourage banks to be more conservative in their lending, and more likely to restructure mortgages in an effort to get more than foreclosure value while letting folks keep their homes. Obama/Biden will win the election and initiate a New New Deal creating thousands of jobs and putting America on the fast track to clean energy independence.

That leaves a few more months of panic while everyone tries to decide if we really have transported our economic system into the hyper real. A year or so climbing out of recession. And finally, a regulatory restructuring, in an effort to (try to) make sense of capitalism in the 21st century global market.

Or, we should prepare for an economic ice age that will create global panic, anarchy, finally resolving in the crumbling of Western Civilization as we know it. Moral of the story: hope for the best but make friends with someone who can fletch arrows and build structures from crab grass.


One Comment

  1. We are going to pull out of this.

    What we are seeing right now is the natural re-stabilization of the global economy. The last ten years have put artificial pressure on the system and we are living through the release of all that steam. It sucks, it’s uncomfortable, but survivable.

    The markets will all settle down, at a very reduced state, sometime in the spring of ’09.

    This is not our Rubicon.